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Over 0.5 goals tips today – Tuesday 3 November 2026
We modelled 65 fixtures across 33 leagues for Tuesday 3 November 2026. 45 Over 0.5 selections cleared both filters: at least 90% from our goals model and at least 90% historical hit rate. The strongest is East Kilbride v Stirling Albion at 100.0%.
65fixtures modelled
45Over 0.5 picks ≥90%
6accumulator tickets today
33leagues
Today's Over 0.5 picks, ranked by probability
| KO | Match | Market | Model probability | Hist. hit rate | xG | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | East Kilbride v Stirling Albion | Over 0.5 | 100.0% | 99.7% | 4.55 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Inverness CT v Montrose | Over 0.5 | 100.0% | 99.7% | 4.85 | 1.01 |
| 20:00 | Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain | Over 0.5 | 99.5% | 96.6% | 4.93 | 1.01 |
| 20:00 | Atletico Madrid v Bayern München | Over 0.5 | 98.8% | 99.5% | 4.09 | 1.02 |
| 19:45 | Airdrie United v Elgin City | Over 0.5 | 98.4% | 99.7% | 3.25 | 1.03 |
| 19:45 | Brentwood Town v Leatherhead | Over 0.5 | 98.2% | 95.3% | 3.77 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Bury v Avro | Over 0.5 | 98.2% | 99.0% | 4.03 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Wingate & Finchley v Burgess Hill Town | Over 0.5 | 97.9% | 99.5% | 3.61 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Eastbourne Borough v Stanway Rovers | Over 0.5 | 97.5% | 96.2% | 3.52 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Dorking Wanderers v Hampton & Richmond | Over 0.5 | 97.4% | 99.4% | 3.45 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Anstey Nomads v Real Bedford | Over 0.5 | 97.1% | 99.2% | 3.56 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Farnborough v Ebbsfleet United | Over 0.5 | 96.9% | 99.4% | 3.29 | 1.02 |
| 20:00 | Sporting Cristal W v Alianza Lima W | Over 0.5 | 96.7% | 97.1% | 2.78 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Plymouth Parkway v Uxbridge | Over 0.5 | 96.3% | 97.8% | 3.31 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Bracknell Town v Chertsey Town | Over 0.5 | 96.2% | 96.8% | 3.28 | 1.01 |
| 18:00 | Sirius v Halmstad | Over 0.5 | 95.7% | 99.3% | 3.21 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Huddersfield v Luton | Over 0.5 | 95.7% | 97.3% | 3.16 | 1.04 |
| 23:00 | Aurora v Independiente Petrolero | Over 0.5 | 95.6% | 100.0% | 3.03 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Lewes v Dartford | Over 0.5 | 95.4% | 99.5% | 2.93 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | QPR v Burnley | Over 0.5 | 95.2% | 90.5% | 3.19 | 1.04 |
| 19:45 | Curzon Ashton v United of Manchester | Over 0.5 | 95.2% | 97.4% | 3.05 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Guiseley AFC v Leek Town | Over 0.5 | 95.0% | 99.0% | 3.01 | 1.01 |
| 12:00 | Górnik Łęczna W v Czarni Sosnowiec W | Over 0.5 | 95.0% | 99.7% | 3.19 | 1.01 |
| 15:00 | Al-Raed v Al Wehda Club | Over 0.5 | 94.7% | 90.7% | 3.25 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Torreense W v SL Benfica W | Over 0.5 | 94.6% | 96.3% | 3.44 | 1.01 |
| 12:10 | Al-Kawkab v Jerash | Over 0.5 | 94.6% | 99.0% | 3.13 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | AFC Emley v Bamber Bridge | Over 0.5 | 94.2% | 94.8% | 2.86 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Bury Town v Kettering Town | Over 0.5 | 94.2% | 96.5% | 2.86 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Poole Town v Hanwell Town | Over 0.5 | 94.2% | 96.8% | 2.85 | 1.01 |
| 21:00 | Xelajú v Marquense | Over 0.5 | 93.9% | 92.1% | 2.70 | 1.01 |
| 19:45 | Derby v Norwich | Over 0.5 | 93.6% | 98.9% | 2.88 | 1.04 |
| 19:45 | Chippenham Town v Evesham United | Over 0.5 | 93.6% | 95.2% | 2.76 | 1.02 |
| 19:45 | Ashton United v Warrington Town | Over 0.5 | 93.1% | 94.8% | 2.69 | 1.02 |
| 22:30 | Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol | Over 0.5 | 93.0% | 99.1% | 2.76 | 1.05 |
| 18:00 | AGF W v Midtjylland W | Over 0.5 | 93.0% | 92.5% | 2.75 | 1.02 |
| 23:20 | Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares | Over 0.5 | 92.7% | 94.7% | 2.70 | 1.06 |
| 12:00 | Al Najoom v Al Shoalah | Over 0.5 | 92.7% | 94.8% | 2.79 | 1.03 |
| 19:45 | Preston v Sheffield Utd | Over 0.5 | 92.6% | 96.3% | 2.72 | 1.04 |
| 19:45 | Watford v Lincoln | Over 0.5 | 92.2% | 94.7% | 2.66 | 1.05 |
| 20:00 | Comerciantes Unidos v ADT | Over 0.5 | 92.2% | 93.4% | 2.50 | 1.05 |
| 21:30 | Monagas SC v Caracas FC | Over 0.5 | 92.0% | 93.7% | 2.68 | 1.04 |
| 20:00 | Birmingham v Millwall | Over 0.5 | 91.4% | 93.6% | 2.55 | 1.05 |
| 18:15 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Over 0.5 | 91.3% | 95.3% | 2.63 | 1.02 |
| 17:00 | Chrobry Głogów v Arka Gdynia | Over 0.5 | 90.8% | 93.5% | 2.47 | 1.05 |
| 23:30 | Deportivo Tachira FC v Puerto Cabello | Over 0.5 | 90.2% | 91.4% | 2.44 | 1.07 |
Other matches we modelled
These did not clear both 90% filters, so they are not used on tickets.
| KO | Match | Market | Model probability | Hist. hit rate | xG | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Charlton v Bolton | Over 0.5 | 92.1% | 80.1% | 2.64 | 1.04 |
| 20:00 | West Brom v Southampton | Over 0.5 | 92.0% | 89.4% | 2.63 | 1.04 |
| 20:30 | Mushuc Runa SC v Manta FC | Over 0.5 | 91.6% | 87.8% | 2.49 | 1.05 |
| 19:45 | Wigan v Mansfield Town | Over 0.5 | 90.7% | 87.9% | 2.39 | 1.04 |
| 12:25 | Najran v Jubbah | Over 0.5 | 90.5% | 89.5% | 2.50 | 1.05 |
| 16:00 | Jezero v Dečić | Over 0.5 | 90.5% | 87.2% | 2.44 | 1.05 |
| 19:45 | Portsmouth v Swansea | Over 0.5 | 90.0% | 94.2% | 2.39 | 1.08 |
| 17:00 | APR v Gasogi United | Over 0.5 | 89.9% | 93.7% | 2.44 | 1.06 |
| 13:00 | Muzinga v Aigle Noir | Over 0.5 | 89.8% | 88.4% | 2.42 | 1.06 |
| 17:00 | Pogoń Siedlce v Ruch Chorzów | Over 0.5 | 89.4% | 93.5% | 2.32 | 1.05 |
| 19:45 | Blackburn v Stoke City | Over 0.5 | 89.4% | 90.5% | 2.33 | 1.06 |
| 12:00 | Tefik Canga v Ferizaj | Over 0.5 | 89.3% | 82.1% | 2.33 | 1.07 |
| 12:45 | Al Entesar v Al Rawdhah | Over 0.5 | 89.2% | 90.6% | 2.36 | 1.07 |
| 22:30 | Nacional Asuncion v Club Sp. San Lorenzo | Over 0.5 | 89.1% | 92.4% | 2.25 | 1.04 |
| 20:00 | 2 de Mayo v Sportivo Trinidense | Over 0.5 | 89.0% | 89.3% | 2.25 | 1.07 |
| 20:30 | Deportivo Pereira v Deportes Tolima | Over 0.5 | 88.0% | 82.0% | 2.18 | 1.07 |
| 19:45 | Northampton v Oldham | Over 0.5 | 85.9% | 92.8% | 1.97 | 1.07 |
| 16:15 | SNIM v Chemal | Over 0.5 | 85.7% | 89.2% | 2.21 | 1.11 |
| 16:00 | Petro de Luanda v Desportivo Huíla | Over 0.5 | 85.6% | 75.3% | 2.02 | 1.11 |
| 14:00 | AS Kigali v Mukura | Over 0.5 | 83.4% | 89.5% | 1.91 | 1.14 |
Leagues covered today
Angola GirabolaBolivia Copa de la División ProfesionalBrazil Serie ABurundi Ligue AColombia Primera ADenmark KvindeligaEcuador Liga ProEngland ChampionshipEngland League OneEngland League TwoEngland National League - SouthEngland Non League Premier - IsthmianEngland Non League Premier - NorthernEngland Non League Premier - Southern CentralEngland Non League Premier - Southern SouthGuatemala Liga NacionalKosovo Liga E PareMauritania Premier LeagueMontenegro First LeagueParaguay Division Profesional - ClausuraPeru Liga WomenPeru Primera DivisiónPoland Ekstraliga WomenPoland I LigaPortugal 1a Divisão - WomenRwanda National Soccer LeagueSaudi-Arabia Division 1Saudi-Arabia Division 2Scotland Challenge CupSweden AllsvenskanVenezuela Primera DivisiónWorld AFC Champions League EliteWorld UEFA Champions League
Questions about Over 0.5 goals
What does Over 0.5 goals mean?
The bet wins if at least one goal is scored in normal time. Only a 0-0 loses.
Why are Over 0.5 odds so low?
Most matches have a goal, so bookmakers price Over 0.5 short, often between 1.02 and 1.10. That's why these picks are usually combined into accumulators, and why one goalless game can cost a whole ticket.
How are these Over 0.5 probabilities calculated?
Our goals model estimates the chance of a 0-0 for every fixture; the Over 0.5 probability is everything else. It then has to agree with each team's recent goal record before we list it as a pick.
How did yesterday go?
The track record starts once the first tickets are settled.